The future of CleanTech?
Been looking at CleanTech stuff again this week and fell to wondering whether this might be the next bubble.
Having grey hair should, at least give you a slightly longer view on things, so here are a few pointers.
Firstly there is actually a real market here just as there was (and indeed still is) with sub-prime mortgages, Internet stocks, railways, trading with the South Seas and all the other bubbles there have been since the Dutch went a little wild over tulips in the 17th century.
Secondly, the availability of information to support decision making is both opaque and asymmetric. What this leads to is that conventional measures are not always seen as reliable indicators of what is going on - events are either moving too fast or extrapolating the graph into the future clearly gives the wrong answer. As a result, there is a scramble for new measures to try to manage what’s going on. So when you see companies valued on something other than revenue and profit you know a bubble is underway.
Thirdly watch the growth of conferences, industry events and the trade press. At the height of the UK’s railway mania in 1848 there were 47 weekly publications on railways sold to the general public.
Clean Tech/Energy the next bubble? You read it here first!
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