Fortune favours the brave.....
There is no doubt about it, but there is a lot of fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) in the UK market at the moment. So how should you approach the market?
I would offer three thoughts on the current economic situation.
Firstly, this is my fourth recession while I’ve been in business - and I’m still going strong, so the ‘end of the world’ headlines should be treated with a pinch of salt.
Secondly, if UK growth is nil (or close to zero) over the next twelve months, then given the contraction of public sector spend over that period the private sector is likely to show respectable, albeit modest, growth. What matters here is where your customer base is. If your target market is consumers in UK regions where the public sector provides the majority of the jobs then expect a tough time. If your target market is corporate and the proposition is productivity improvements then it is a different story.
Supporting this argument are the lessons of history which is my third thought. I find reading history fascinating, so when an economics guru uses an historic parallel to inform our thinking on the current situation I confess I give in to the temptation to Google it and read up on the subject. So is it Seventies style stagflation caused by the oil shock? Or is it the great depression caused by the Wall St. Crash? Or the long depression caused by the collapse of the Vienna stock exchange? Whatever is the best parallel one thing is consistent in all these cases - certain industries grew dramatically during these periods of economic gloom.
So how should you approach the market at this time? My answer is if you have a world leading product, be bold. Your forebears made their fortunes at times like this.
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